Inflation: Is this time really different?
Inflation er tilbage, som det måske vigtigste tema for markederne lige nu. Med excess savings, pent-up demand, begyndende genåbning og en gigantisk hjælpepakke i USA, er der rigeligt at holde styr på. Men er vi virkelig på vej mod vedvarende inflation, eller bliver det bare af forbigående karakter?
Få Arend Kapteyn fra UBS’s syn på sagen, når vi ved denne netværksdebat stiller skarpt på inflationsudsigterne.
Arend will discuss how the special pandemic factors (not counting oil) could generate 10x more inflation then suggested by the standard central bank models; how being just slightly wrong on the US rental market could advance the Fed’s lift-off by 1-2 years; and much the global container shortage could contribute to inflation. At the same time though, he will also show why liquidity won’t matter, that there is no such thing as a ‘global’ inflation cycle, why excess demand/overheating arguments are overplayed, that there are also price normalization risks on the downside, and the common drivers of inflation break-evens and realized inflation.
Efter indlægget skal vi debattere emnet i netværket.
|14:30||Velkomst og introduktion til dagens program|
|14:35||Inflation—What Are The Ten Critical Market Questions?
Arend Kapteyn, Global Head of Economics & Strategy Research, UBS AG
|15:15||Questions to Arend Kapteyn|
|15:55||Afrunding og tak for i dag|
CFA PL Credits
If you are a CFA Institute member, you are eligible to record 1,25 PL credits for your participation in this meeting.
Arend is Global Head of Economics and Strategy Research, and Chief Economist of the Investment Bank. He joined UBS in August 2016 from Brevan Howard Asset Management where he was head of Emerging Market research & strategy (2010-2016). Prior to that (2006-2010) he ran macro research and FX strategy for the EMEA region at Deutsche Bank. He also spent 8 years (1998-2006) at the International Monetary Fund, where he was a senior economist working on many of the Fund’s high profile programs and specializing in crisis resolution issues. Arend started his career at the Dutch Central Bank, where he worked as an economist in the Monetary and Economic Policy Department, and in the late 1990s was a member of the G22 Secretariat, a precursor to the current G20. He holds degrees in Economics and International Relations from Johns Hopkins University and business degree from the Netherlands School of Business.