Verden efter COVID-19: inflationær eller deflationær?
Efter det største dyk i den økonomiske aktivitet siden 30’erne ser vi på dette møde nærmere på de længerevarende konsekvenser af corona-krisen. Vil mindre globalisering koblet med rekordstore finans- og pengepolitiske lempelser uundgåeligt skabe inflation, eller står vi overfor en deflationsspiral med lavere produktivitetsvækst, når kapitalismens kreative destruktion sættes ud af kraft? Til at hjælpe os med at blive klogere på emnet har vi inviteret ingen ringere end Albert Edwards (Global Strategist – Alternative View, Societe Generale) og Jim Reid (Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy & Thematic Research, Deutsche Bank).
|12.30||Registrering og sandwich|
|13.00||Velkomst og introduktion til dagens program|
|13.05||The full-blown Japanification of the US and Europe lies ahead
Albert Edwards, Global Strategist (Alternative View), Societe Generale
Will COVID-19 be deflationary or inflationary?
Jim Reid, Managing Director, Global Head of Fundamental Credit Strategy & Thematic Research, Deutsche Bank
|15.30||Tak for i dag|
Jim is a Managing Director and Global Head of the Fundamental Credit Strategy Group. He also heads up DB’s Thematic Research Product and Corporate Bank Research. Jim is a top-ranked strategist, consistently named the No.1 analyst in the major surveys over the last 25 years. In 2019 he was voted No.1 Strategist in four categories in the European Institutional Investor flagship Fixed Income Poll. He has had 25 No.1 positions in these awards in the last decade, more than quadruple the number of any other analyst.
His daily Early Morning Reid report has been running for over 13 years now, has tens of thousands of daily readers, and has the most subscribers of any DB research publication globally. It is one of the most widely read financial market pieces in the investment world.
Jim joined Deutsche Bank in September 2004 and has nearly 25 years of experience in Investment Banking. Before becoming a strategist, Jim spent the first three years of his career in sales covering both real money accounts and hedge funds.
Jim has a BA Degree in Economics and Economic History from Warwick.
Albert Edwards has joined Societe Generale Cross Asset Research in November 2007. From 1988 to November 2007, Albert Edwards worked for Dresdner Kleinwort as global strategist. He started his financial career within Bank of England in 1983, and then he worked for Bank America Investment Management from 1986 to 1988. Albert was leading global strategist for a record 17 consecutive years in the Thomson Extel survey of analysts.
Albert is most well known for his 1996 Ice Age thesis of how the US and Europe would follow closely the deflationary and market trends seen in Japan. Hence he has been (correctly) a long standing bull of long bonds and (incorrectly) a long time bear of equities. He has been a trenchant critic of central bank policies in inflating asset and credit bubbles to sustain economic growth, describing Alan Greenspan as an “Economic War Criminal” in the mid-1990s when others were referring to him as “The Maestro”. He currently expects a Japan-style deflationary bust in the US and Europe as a finale to The Ice Age before a transition to a period of much higher inflation and growth sustained by direct monetary support for explosive public sector fiscal deficits.
CFA CE Credit Hours
If you are a CFA Institute member, you are eligible to record 2 CE credit hours for your participation in this meeting.